Microsoft may be backing HD DVD to help both formats fail
Posted on 17/02/06 00:33 by Seán Byrne                             
Microsoft may be backing HD DVD to help both formats fail

Going by an engadget blog, it appears that Microsoft may have a tactic behind backing HD DVD, in which they may not be backing HD DVD to help it win, but instead in an aim to help both formats to lose out by sustainig the format war.  As Blu-ray has got a lot of backing behind the big labels, Microsoft and Intel are sticking with HD DVD to help push the format (and more recently, HP), not to mention causing grief for sole Blu-ray backers. 

Basically, by making it difficult to choose between which format to go with, chances are that users will stay clear of them altogether, much like how the next generation of Audio-CDs never took off as well as they could have, partly due to two formats (SACD and DVD-Audio), strong anti-piracy technologies and the equipment remaining very expensive due to slow sales.

One thing Microsoft has shown strong interest in is changing to a media-less environment, in which case they would have nothing to lose if neither format takes off.  If both competing formats shows poor interest, a media-center PC for purchasing Video On Demand content becomes more attractive than taking the risky move of purchasing an expensive player that may become obsolete in a short time (like what happened with Betamax and the previous DIVX system ).  If Microsoft succeeds, their media center based PCs, including their DRM software and codecs may end up becoming the next big thing after DVD.  Microsoft has already put a lot of work into enhancing Vista's (upcoming OS) security in order to work with DirecTV set-top boxes, satisfy Hollywood and offer portability, such as with compatible portable DRM media players.  Thanks to Wesociety for letting us know about the following news:

"No. Microsoft knows that even with its and Intel's support, the standard isn't strong enough to beat Blu-ray in the marketplace per se. However, with them on board, HD DVD is just strong enough so that there's a good chance that neither standard will be able to claim a clear victory..."

"How is that good for Microsoft?"

"Simple. Microsoft really has nothing to gain from either format winning. Just listen to any of Gates' recent interviews and how he talks about discs as a necessary evil until the world is ready for media-free distribution. That said, Microsoft has much to gain from both formats losing. Think back to the format war between DVD-Audio and SACD. Both formats lost and it was a computer company that stepped in to become the new center of the digital music universe.

"Microsoft was a bit late to the game for that one, but it's making a big investment into securing Windows Vista for Hollywood as well as ensuring that Portable Media Centers work with DirecTV set-tops. Microsoft gets to sell DRM software and Windows Mobile licenses so that consumers can take this stuff on the go. All of that is a lot less likely if the content is trapped in a 5-inch round jail, regardless of which camp is the warden.

The full article can be read on engadget here.

With the advancement in hard drive capacity and broadband speeds, it seems like Video-On-Demand may start competing with DVDs.  However, there will be a lot of consumers out there who still prefer the trusty 'hands-on' approach, which would seem less complicated for them.  For example, a lot of households still don't have a PC and chances are that these consumers are not going to replace their DVD player with a PC, no matter what capabilities it may have!

Source: engadget - Switched On

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Reactions
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By beaker75, Friday 17 February 2006 03:56
One thing not said about Video-On Demand is that you are at the mercy of the provider as to content and pricing. With physical media (CD, DVD, et. al.) you buy the copy once and as long as it stays in good condition you can play it a much as you want. Here's another thought: If I should have an accident, say a fire burns down my house, or theft, with physical media an insurance company will normally pay to replace it. With digital media, an insurance company will pay to replace the computer (or media center) where I downloaded my content, but will they pay to replace all of the downloaded, legally purchased, digital content?
By Shadowman69, Friday 17 February 2006 09:01
I completely disagree with this point of view. Microsoft is backing HD-DVD because it wants to hurt Sony and this is for sure. The rest is anachronistic. Maybe in the far future (at last 10 years) we all have BIG HD and/or Wireless High Speed broadband everywhere but in these days and in the near future customers will stuck on discs to backup their video and music to take them everywhere they want. Not to mention that the Xbox360 marketplace is SLOW I have a 4Mb ADSL and on my PC I easely reach the maximum speed while on the 360 it seems to go around 640Kb-1Mb so to download a demo or trailer in 720p is a real pain... cry
By GezusK, Friday 17 February 2006 09:01
GezusKIf its handled properly, then the place that you purchased the download from should let you redownload it. Something like Valve uses Steam for. The games you've purchased are associated with your username. After a reformat, or buying a new system, you just login, and you can redownload your games. Should work with media.
By _chef_, Friday 17 February 2006 09:49
_chef_m$ deserves nothing more than a $pank for their impertinent ignorance on everything else! loveit
By tylau, Friday 17 February 2006 10:11
tylauWith all the format wars and those hassles, it is no doubt that HD era is still far far away. Always wonder which exists first, chicken or egg Wink
By gl9, Friday 17 February 2006 10:44
it's a nice theory, but i doubt its validity. Microsoft wants HD DVD to win because of X-Box. they may have plans for "media-less" crap, but they have to know that's far away from fruition. it's Microsoft. it's a big company. i'd expect them to do some market research. having said that, while i do think - eventually - everything will become digital, consumer rights, "ownership", "security" and "insurance" have to addressed and enforced.
By Controller, Friday 17 February 2006 12:51
Where is my aluminium beanie???
By teisho, Friday 17 February 2006 14:29
don't forget holographic storage is next, then after that, who knows. New storage of some kind will always be just around the corner, so to me, Microsoft doing something like this would be a waste of time.
By Crabbyappleton, Friday 17 February 2006 15:52
CrabbyappletonI think Holographic is the way to go. 300 gigs a layer is what we need and leave the movies on DVD with CSS. devil
By Wesociety, Friday 17 February 2006 16:55
WesocietyIt's a nice Conspiracy Theory. devil
By masterbw, Saturday 18 February 2006 01:57
We need to give this guy who made up the conspiracy story big claps... Very good story, I like it. devil
By JJJB, Saturday 18 February 2006 07:36
What both are missing out on is the fact that the average public could care less. Most people on the planet have more important things to worry about than Blue Ray , HD DVD, DVD- Audio, SACD or the difference between 480 DVD and 1080p ....etc
By beaker75, Sunday 19 February 2006 06:28
I agree with "If its handled properly" and I do like the way Valve (with Steam) handles things. However, I believe (correct me if I'm wrong), but I do not think iTunes allows redownloading of music (i.e. you loose the song, you must pay to re-download it).
By GristyMcFisty, Sunday 19 February 2006 10:10
GristyMcFistyYep we're a long way off from a "media-less" society, think about it logically, we're still running our data over lossy frigging copper. ADSL is already bust, they may have got it to 24Mbps, but to get a decent speed you need to live no more than 300 metres from the exchange! So unless a solution is found to this problem, i.e. the copper is replaced with Fibre, or some kind of repeater system is installed 'media-less' will never happen.
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