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Last week Richard Cooper, video analyst at Screen Digest media research, gave a presentation at Media-Tech 2008 in Frankfurt, Germany. The presentation started with a forecast on Blu-ray adoption in both Western Europe and the United States. Driven by US-declines we can expect unit sales to go down in 2008 and 2009, says Richard Cooper. By 2011 consumers will switch to Blu-ray, where the format is expected to account for one in three sales by that year.
Cooper's update shows that Blu-ray is still at its start and has a tough time reaching the consumer with such a strong competitor: DVD. Europe's largest Blu-ray market, the United Kingdom, didn't massively adopt the format in 2007 and this is not expected to happen this year either. Blu-ray's disc sales will be minimal and is expected to account for 2% of the total video disc sales in Europe.
With 2011 as the format's 'switching' year, and this year's Fall being the expected start of a price drop we are curious if Cooper is right. Adoption after possible price drops this year, or a real decline until 2011?
Update
Mr. Richard Cooper mailed us that he was misquoted in the article above. In Frankfurt mr. Cooper said he didn't expect an actual decline over 2008/2009, but that video packaged media is likely to. Cooper expects Blu-ray sales to grow substantially in 2008/2009, but not enough to compensate for the forecast decline in DVD sales over the same period.
Cooper's presentation can be found here.
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Posted by Crabbyappleton on Wednesday 14 May 2008 14:29
Bluray is a niche product. It will never be mainstream. 1080p needs too damn big a screen. Period. Paragraph. It may not survive due to low demand and exhorbandant production costs. There is precious litttle advantage of HD over SD for the typical end user.
Bluray ( or actually "high definition" ) was dreampt up for two reasons.
1. To do something about flattening DVD sales. Taking a cue from the also dead "music industry" - everyone will have to re-buy the same old movies again in order to "enjoy" them in Bluray. Plus, purchase a new player with a larger profit margin due to increrased sale price to play them on. DVD players margins are slim.
2. Introduce a more sophisticated, tougher to crack DRM, capable of delivering an enhanced "after the sale" revenue stream, by denying even more of a customers Fair Use Rights.
This message was edited at: 14-05-2008 14:38
Bluray ( or actually "high definition" ) was dreampt up for two reasons.
1. To do something about flattening DVD sales. Taking a cue from the also dead "music industry" - everyone will have to re-buy the same old movies again in order to "enjoy" them in Bluray. Plus, purchase a new player with a larger profit margin due to increrased sale price to play them on. DVD players margins are slim.
2. Introduce a more sophisticated, tougher to crack DRM, capable of delivering an enhanced "after the sale" revenue stream, by denying even more of a customers Fair Use Rights.
This message was edited at: 14-05-2008 14:38
Posted by johnson (guest) on Wednesday 14 May 2008 14:30
blu ray will die out, just like hd dvd. downloads are the future, by the time sony thinks blu ray will take off, downloads will have dominated! it`s too easy to get dsl, or fios in most areas (so dont come back with "i cant get high speed in my area") there is a thing called satellight.
Posted by DukeNukem on Wednesday 14 May 2008 14:59
@ Crabbyappleton
"Bluray is a niche product. It will never be mainstream."
Agreed. Reason being discs/players are too expensive and you need to buy a new TV if you don't have hi-def.
I want hi-def, but not Blu-ray. Solution? I'm gonna build an HTPC or buy a steaming video solution and fill it with Blu-ray rips.
"Bluray is a niche product. It will never be mainstream."
Agreed. Reason being discs/players are too expensive and you need to buy a new TV if you don't have hi-def.
I want hi-def, but not Blu-ray. Solution? I'm gonna build an HTPC or buy a steaming video solution and fill it with Blu-ray rips.
Posted by Dario (guest) on Wednesday 14 May 2008 15:26
I have to agree with the above comment...
"I want hi-def, but not Blu-ray. Solution? I'm gonna build an HTPC or buy a steaming video solution and fill it with Blu-ray rips. "
That`s what I am doing also....
"I want hi-def, but not Blu-ray. Solution? I'm gonna build an HTPC or buy a steaming video solution and fill it with Blu-ray rips. "
That`s what I am doing also....
Posted by Sweeney Todd (guest) on Wednesday 14 May 2008 16:28
Even upconverting DVD looks pretty good on my 42" plasma TV. Blu-ray rip would be even better.
Posted by uncle bobby (guest) on Wednesday 14 May 2008 17:09
tut tut we should be spending all our money on blue ray everyone whats gonna happen if it doesnt take off and s$ny drop it it will be like when tosh dropped hd and we all got left with hd paper weights this time round it will be blue ray paper weights come people keep s$ny afloat here i dont want a second paper weight on the tv stand p.s blue ray looks sweet on 14" black n white portable tv
Posted by Hypnosis4U2NV on Wednesday 14 May 2008 18:37
@Uncle Bobby;
I appreciate your input, but it gave me a damn headache.. Instead of writing a run-on sentence, try using a few periods in there.. Heck, I use two after each sentence I write!
@DukeNukem;
Hey Bro, how much you charging for those HTPC your building? What titles are included?
Seriously, for the same amount of money you would spend on a Flu-Ray player, you can build yourself a pretty decent HTPC that will do way more..
I appreciate your input, but it gave me a damn headache.. Instead of writing a run-on sentence, try using a few periods in there.. Heck, I use two after each sentence I write!
@DukeNukem;
Hey Bro, how much you charging for those HTPC your building? What titles are included?
Seriously, for the same amount of money you would spend on a Flu-Ray player, you can build yourself a pretty decent HTPC that will do way more..
Posted by deckard68 (guest) on Wednesday 14 May 2008 20:12
"Agreed. Reason being discs/players are too expensive and you need to buy a new TV if you don't have hi-def."
Ah, but sales of new tvs -- which at at a minimum 720 -- are brisk, and everyone who owns one who happens to tune in a live football game sees what high def looks like, and sees it looks way better than their 480 dvd collection.
Tvs will drive people to high def. But that means it is a 2 step process: Christmas #1, buy new tv. Christmas #2, but a BluRay player (once they're $99!).
Ah, but sales of new tvs -- which at at a minimum 720 -- are brisk, and everyone who owns one who happens to tune in a live football game sees what high def looks like, and sees it looks way better than their 480 dvd collection.
Tvs will drive people to high def. But that means it is a 2 step process: Christmas #1, buy new tv. Christmas #2, but a BluRay player (once they're $99!).
Posted by johnnyjt on Wednesday 14 May 2008 20:25
Dish Network just added 12 more HD channels to my HD line up including MGM-HD all HD movies all the time no commercials! Thats about 40 HD channels not including 6 PPV-HD and all NBA and NHL HD packages! I'll keep DN and my HD-DVD! I'm good to go!
JohnnyJT
JohnnyJT
Posted by Crabbyappleton on Wednesday 14 May 2008 22:02
Posted by johnnyjt on Wednesday 14 May 2008 20:25
"Dish Network just added 12 more HD channels to my HD line up including MGM-HD all HD movies all the time no commercials!"
WTF! What channel? I have dish and din't notice this yet. I was about to bail over to DirecTV to get a better HD DVR. 
"Dish Network just added 12 more HD channels to my HD line up including MGM-HD all HD movies all the time no commercials!"
WTF!
What channel? I have dish and din't notice this yet. I was about to bail over to DirecTV to get a better HD DVR. Posted by DukeNukem on Wednesday 14 May 2008 22:11
@ uncle bobby
Go back to school. My head hurts from reading your garbage.
@ Hypnosis4U2NV
Don't think I haven't thought about making some cash on the side. HTPCs are the future, but they MUST NOT look like PCs. The ones I'm going to build will look like big DVD players. No movies on them, though. I firmly believe I wouldn't flourish in a prison environment.
Go back to school. My head hurts from reading your garbage.
@ Hypnosis4U2NV
Don't think I haven't thought about making some cash on the side. HTPCs are the future, but they MUST NOT look like PCs. The ones I'm going to build will look like big DVD players. No movies on them, though. I firmly believe I wouldn't flourish in a prison environment.
Posted by ivid on Wednesday 14 May 2008 23:51
HD is the next logical step and I believe BR will take off. Yes its a bit of a nichje market today, except its a niche market with millions of players already sold ! So not really...
SD is dying and the higher the resolution the HDTV, the worse the upconverted or SD content looks.
All TV's will be HD soon, and no downloads will not take over from OWNING THE PHYSICAL PRODUCT. People like to buy and own movies. Downloads will compete against rentals.
BR players are not as expensive as DVD was when it started to take off, or they're about the same now. I know because I bought a $800 "high-end" DVD player in 2001, when normal players and PS2 were ~ $400.
Downloads and HDTV are compressed CRAP. I'll take the quality of the BR disc any day !
SD is dying and the higher the resolution the HDTV, the worse the upconverted or SD content looks.
All TV's will be HD soon, and no downloads will not take over from OWNING THE PHYSICAL PRODUCT. People like to buy and own movies. Downloads will compete against rentals.
BR players are not as expensive as DVD was when it started to take off, or they're about the same now. I know because I bought a $800 "high-end" DVD player in 2001, when normal players and PS2 were ~ $400.
Downloads and HDTV are compressed CRAP. I'll take the quality of the BR disc any day !
Posted by Watsit (guest) on Thursday 15 May 2008 01:30
I think blu ray will continue to make massive gains into the disc market. We\\\'ve seen this occurring already; 7% - 10% of all disc sales are Blu Ray now. That\\\'s up more than 3 times from last year and a clear indicator that it will overtake DVD in under a year. Downloadable movies won\\\'t be anywhere near mass market till Blu Ray is firmly established as a standard so those of you hoping against all odds and facts that Blu Ray is going to fade are delusional.
Posted by DukeNukem on Thursday 15 May 2008 14:49
@ Watsit
"a clear indicator that it will overtake DVD in under a year"
What are you smoking? Please share.
"a clear indicator that it will overtake DVD in under a year"
What are you smoking? Please share.
Posted by DVD5 (guest) on Thursday 15 May 2008 15:53
its very easy to fit a hd movie 1280x720 on to a dvd 9. why not just use that?
Posted by DukeNukem on Thursday 15 May 2008 17:50
@ DVD5
"its very easy to fit a hd movie 1280x720 on to a dvd 9. why not just use that?"
You can, but the only thing you can play it on is an HTPC. Plus, the movie would be compressed even further.
"its very easy to fit a hd movie 1280x720 on to a dvd 9. why not just use that?"
You can, but the only thing you can play it on is an HTPC. Plus, the movie would be compressed even further.
Posted by clyde (guest) on Friday 16 May 2008 02:09
"a clear indicator that it will overtake DVD in under a year"
Hahahahaha!!! toke it up dude!
Hahahahaha!!! toke it up dude!
Posted by debro on Sunday 18 May 2008 08:28
High Definition is taking off.
I'm a tad earlier than mainstream, at the point where it's affordable, but not cheap enough for the average Joe & I've just splurged on a HD TV + PS3 ... and I've just bought more Blu-Ray movies in the last 2 weeks than I have DVD's for the last 8 years
Blu-ray is NOT a niche market, just like Vista is not a Niche market.
TV's wear out .. people will watch HD free-to-air TV or pay-tv HD & realise that HD is MUCH better than the SD channels, and once enough people start buying Blu-ray player & discs, Bluray will be mainstream.
12 Months ago:
40" Plasma's / LCDs - $5000au
Now $3000au or less ... a full HD TV for as little as $1800au
Bluray players (and there was only 2 available on the market) - $1500
Now .. your choice for under $600au
DVD's here are still $35 for new releases down to $15 for recent (5yr old) releases, and $5 for B grade crap or 1960's westerns.
Bluray - New releases $45 Recent releases $40. Misc crap $35.
There's not much difference between Bluray & DVD here for anything anyone wants to watch - the new stuff.
And most of the Bluray players render your DVD's in HD and make them look better anyway.
Blu-Ray is the CURRENT thing .. DVD's are old hat.
The next big thing will be 3D Blu-Ray.
I'm a tad earlier than mainstream, at the point where it's affordable, but not cheap enough for the average Joe & I've just splurged on a HD TV + PS3 ... and I've just bought more Blu-Ray movies in the last 2 weeks than I have DVD's for the last 8 years
Blu-ray is NOT a niche market, just like Vista is not a Niche market.
TV's wear out .. people will watch HD free-to-air TV or pay-tv HD & realise that HD is MUCH better than the SD channels, and once enough people start buying Blu-ray player & discs, Bluray will be mainstream.
12 Months ago:
40" Plasma's / LCDs - $5000au
Now $3000au or less ... a full HD TV for as little as $1800au
Bluray players (and there was only 2 available on the market) - $1500
Now .. your choice for under $600au
DVD's here are still $35 for new releases down to $15 for recent (5yr old) releases, and $5 for B grade crap or 1960's westerns.
Bluray - New releases $45 Recent releases $40. Misc crap $35.
There's not much difference between Bluray & DVD here for anything anyone wants to watch - the new stuff.
And most of the Bluray players render your DVD's in HD and make them look better anyway.
Blu-Ray is the CURRENT thing .. DVD's are old hat.
The next big thing will be 3D Blu-Ray.
Posted by Crabbyappleton on Sunday 18 May 2008 20:57
Posted by debro on Sunday 18 May 2008 08:28
"High Definition is taking off."
"The next big thing will be 3D Blu-Ray."
High def is taking off alright, but not Bluray! HD is ONLY popular right now due to content providers such as satellite and cable, and also a little bit OTA. Mainly, folks like to see their shows and especially sporting events in 1080i HD. Wait till the Olympics hit, then you will see some LCDs flying off the shelves.
Bluray is a doomed tech as it is too expensive to produce, with low yields, coupled with too many cumbersom "anti-piracy measures" that end up costing the consumer to much to be bothered with. HDCP, AACS, region coding etc etc etc. We all know these "protections" are merely tools to extract even more money from poor old Joe Sixpack, after the sale, and do not stop any real pirates. All it does is add to the complexity and expense to the end user. The HD enthusiast who wants to stream content has to shell out for software to defeat these annoying restrictions, designed to "legally" deny us our Fair Use Rights" by adding in a layer of protection that cannot be removed "legally" due to the DMCA.
As far as the "next big thing" being 3D Bluray- you have got to be kidding!
This message was edited at: 18-05-2008 21:13
"High Definition is taking off."
"The next big thing will be 3D Blu-Ray."
High def is taking off alright, but not Bluray! HD is ONLY popular right now due to content providers such as satellite and cable, and also a little bit OTA. Mainly, folks like to see their shows and especially sporting events in 1080i HD. Wait till the Olympics hit, then you will see some LCDs flying off the shelves.
Bluray is a doomed tech as it is too expensive to produce, with low yields, coupled with too many cumbersom "anti-piracy measures" that end up costing the consumer to much to be bothered with. HDCP, AACS, region coding etc etc etc. We all know these "protections" are merely tools to extract even more money from poor old Joe Sixpack, after the sale, and do not stop any real pirates. All it does is add to the complexity and expense to the end user. The HD enthusiast who wants to stream content has to shell out for software to defeat these annoying restrictions, designed to "legally" deny us our Fair Use Rights" by adding in a layer of protection that cannot be removed "legally" due to the DMCA.
As far as the "next big thing" being 3D Bluray- you have got to be kidding!
This message was edited at: 18-05-2008 21:13
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