Last quarter P2P filesharing up 14% after 6 month decline
Posted on 16/01/04 05:39 by Dan Bell                             
Last quarter P2P filesharing up 14% after 6 month decline
Our old friends, the NPD Group have some startling information for us to ponder . They have been doing some more surveys that indicate music downloading via peer-to-peer services began to increase in October 2003 and remained up in November 2003.

"The music industry was heartened to see that their campaign to reduce or eliminate file sharing on P2P networks appeared to be working," said Russ Crupnick, vice president of The NPD Group. "Recent information from complementary data services at NPD, however, noted an increase in the number of households and individual consumers using P2P services to download digital music files."

NPD's MusicWatch Digital service, which monitors household usage of P2P services directly from panelists' PCs, reports that the number of households downloading digital music files was up 14 percent in November 2003 compared with September. This up-turn comes after six straight months of declines in digital file acquisition, since April 2003 when the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) began a well-publicized campaign threatening individual file sharers with legal action and fines.

Consumer-reported information gleaned from NPD's ongoing MusicLab survey confirmed the upward trend noted by MusicWatch Digital. MusicLab reported that 20 million individuals said they downloaded music from P2P services in May 2003, 18 million in July and 11 million in September. Echoing NPD's MusicWatch Digital data, beginning in November the number of individual file-sharers grew to 12 million. Although the difference of one million appears small, NPD reports that this is a statistically significant increase based on the size of the NPDMusicLab survey sample.

First, I was unaware of MusicWatch Digital service that "monitors household usage of P2P services directly from panelists' PCs"! That aside, it is important to remember that overall filesharing is down, way down. Yet, we have to try and understand how after such a harsh education program, courtesy of the RIAA we could see anything other than a flattening of use in the illegal areas. One thought is we may be experiencing a seasonal blip and soon the trend will return to a decline. NPD promises to keep an eye on that for us.

Another theory proposed by Mr. Crupnick is worth contemplating. "Beginning in late October, several high-profile legal music downloading services were launched. There may have been some legal-to-P2P site crossover, as consumers explored legal digital music but drifted into the P2P realm to compare song file availability."

File availability is something that is a major drawback with the legal services. The beauty of P2P was, if a song came to mind, it seemed it could be found, regardless of it's obscurity. Or you could try a few hours later or another day, the content was constantly changing. Not so with the new legal services, it is really hit or miss. In fact, there are many things that aren't there and I suspect that they won't be there for a long time. Let alone a few hours or days.

In my case the urge to revert to P2P was great, but I fought it as I don't want trouble. However, others may not be as concerned and decide to go snag a few. Maybe, they have been educated to know that the folks uploading are catching all the heat or are at a local coffee shop with a wireless laptop.

Source: Music Industry News

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Reactions
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By chsbiking, Friday 16 January 2004 14:15
A lot of people download all their favorite songs in bulk and then stop once they have them. However, a couple months or a year go by and whole bunch of new songs come out. So then then they get back online download them all in bulk and then go away again. In my area sometimes they offer DSL for 29 bucks for six months then the price rockets up to 50. Some people get the DSL download like crazy then when they feel they have everything they need they go back to dial up. These type of statistics may indicate some of that is taking place.
By TekWiz, Saturday 17 January 2004 05:13
Other possibilities: 1. All the hoopla by the RIAA had the effect of advertising P2P -- people hear about it on the news, they want to try it. 2. The recent federal court decision which makes it very difficult for the RIAA to obtain subscriber names from ISP's (they have to go through the usual court proceedings with a judge and not through court clerks) makes people feel safer, and they are coming back. (Those people who supposedly stopped sharing when the news of the prosecutions hit). 3. The scare-tactic effect of the RIAA are just wearing off on many people. 4. Some left to try out the pay-per-download programs and were hugely dissapointed. 5. After thinking some more, most people have figured out that the chance of being caught by the RIAA are much slimmer than winning any lottery, or being struck by lightning.
By warforpeace, Saturday 17 January 2004 13:06
warforpeaceWell, most people who want very known songs go and get them on Audio CDs from stores, then rip them to PCs and listen on their choice. However, the ones willing to pay for rare and obscure stuff have practically no other place to find them but P2P networks. I myself am very interested in such obscure stuff. I don't want Britney Spears for .99 USD a song, I want e.g. Deutsch Nepal for 2 USD a song, but I can't get it legally. What's left to do? Go back to P2P because of lack of options. The urge to listen to music is high and the need is here, but the risk to get caught is small and the threat is out there. Heart chooses, mind obeys. It's as simple as that.
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