According to a report in DigiTimes, Matsushita predict that although blue-laser optical disc drive sales account for only 5% of the total today, by 2010 it could well be 20-30%. By 'blue laser' they of course mean both Blu-ray and HD-DVD formats, and including standalone players and computer drives.

What this prediction is based on is not clear, but it is interesting that a company allegedly committed to the Blu-ray format could be apparently hedging their bets and talking in terms of generic laser wavelengths. Still, they quote the statistics from DVD Empire which purport to show a 66:33 ratio of Blu-ray:HD-DVD sales so far this year (but let's not forget that's 66:33 of 5%).

There could be several confounding factors that might influence the anticipated level of sales in two and a half year's time. Firstly, how fast the population decide whether they want their HD viewing to be physical-disc based, or supplied on-line. There is probably no doubt that most people would want something to keep for viewing whenever they feel like it, but on the other hand it might be possible for these desires to be met by the on-line viewing companies. Secondly, and inevitably, how easy it is for people to make genuine backups of their purchased physical discs. Thirdly: how fast would sales of both high definition titles take off if dual format blue-laser players and computer burners become a reality?

After all these things have been considered, what remains is the corollary to the Matsushita predictions about the take-up of high definition: the hidden conclusion that in two and a half year's time 70-80% of the population will still be using MPEG2-based DVD-Video. A pretty sobering thought for the industry as a whole, and grist to the mill for the on-line high-definition content providers.