Study predicts HD disc formats will not take off until March 2009

Going by a Forrester report which studies the next generation format war, the study predicts that one format will win the format war around March 2009, in which HD sales will soar. At present, it finds that Blu-ray has failed to hamper the HD DVD format, partially as a result of the PlayStation 3's launch that did not turn out that big. Worse still, the two major studios Paramount and DreamWorks have decided to only back the HD DVD format.

Despite all the publicity about HDTV and the two HD disc formats, study found that over half of US households have not even heard of Blu-ray or HD DVD, while under 1/5 of households that own a HDTV have actually seen a next gen. player. From the survey of HDTV owners, around 1/3 of them would be willing to choose a HD disc format and 26% would only buy a dual-format player. While LG already has a dual-format player on the market, it is heavily overpriced at $1,299. Samsung's upcoming dual-format player would need to retail below $500 before it attracts much attention.

Finally, Forrester predicts that Blu-ray will win the format war, but only if sorts out a few issues to start with, which include dramatically reducing players to $250 in time for the 2007 Christmas season and avoid having any more studios join only the HD DVD format. Besides the player price, both formats will struggle until more titles and TV shows are made available in HD and something is done about the high disc pricing.

Further info can be read in this Digital Journal report.

*Edit: Year in story title corrected

By WarpedRecord, Fri 28 Sep 2007 02:46

It's all been said before but: VHS to DVD = quantum leap in quality, reliability and user-convenience; DVD to HD disc = a BIT better, less reliable, very convenient price-wise for the content providers and hardware manufacturers, too expensive even for people with big enough rooms to make a 42" HD TV feasible; both optical HD formats are already obsolete for the PC. Years ago it was fun (hard to believe now) to spend 40 mins burning a CD which MIGHT work. Gradually the time needed came down to about 3 mins and now there are 20-speed DVD burners which can fill a DVD in about 6 mins - cheap! During the same period hard disk price/performance came on in leaps and bounds and pen drives became large and affordable to the extent that whereas I used to burn perhaps 10 CD's and 5 DVD's per week now it's as few as 1 of each every 3 months! By the time HD optical formats (?!*) are cheap enough to buy (2011?) they will need to be capable of storing at least 500MB to be a useful purchase - THEY WONT! To summarise, Blu-ray and HD-DVD have been developed with no thought for the consumer and both formats deserve a fast but painful death Frown

This message was edited at: 28-09-2007 02:58

By FidelC, Fri 28 Sep 2007 03:54

You have said it. Both formats are already obsolete for PC use. I have no illusions about burning quality on 3 or 4 layers, its just not gonna work when data density is so much higher than dvd. So its the movies thats gonna move these formats forward. You can't explain bitrate to a 2-4 pack Joe so they will go by price. Even the industry goes by price when using the same size of footage for both HD and Blue. So who is gonna win? Simple, whoever can provide boobies in hi def for less. devil

p.s. and I was referring to bird species, of course
This message was edited at: 28-09-2007 03:57

By Chuckwagon, Fri 28 Sep 2007 20:57

Maybe this fiasco will convince the corporate numbskulls that you can't aways have Gordon Gecko day at work. Greed can't always drive your decisions. They may get huge ROI for the first little while, but their prices are so far out of line that in the long run it's costing them their business. I hate all of the DRM and wish these formats would die a horrible and costly death, but the sheep will buy if the price is right, and if the price is low the sheep won't even notice the DRM. If there are standalone players under $200 for Christmas this year, the business will skyrocket. If not, then HD and BD are going to have a tough road ahead. Smilie

By Zod, Mon 1 Oct 2007 02:42

HD discs will only gain popularity of dual format players become more common, and better priced. I think the the studios picking sides, and not being able to get all the movies you might want in one format, that neither format will die. The prices of dualformat players will drop, and we'll just see both formats sticking around. Its fairly inevitable the DRM will be cracked.. so it probably won't remain much of an issue.. but as long as the industry and movie companies keep dividing it all up.... the solution is going to be in the multiformat players.

By cd pirate, Mon 1 Oct 2007 07:49

Whoever makes their players cheapest will win. If either take a huge pay cut and half their prices, people will simply go with what's cheapest. Two things almost identical, choice is far far easier when one product is considerably cheaper. So biting the bullet and cutting prices may hurt them in the short term but it would eliminate competition.

By buggsy (guest), Mon 1 Oct 2007 13:56

I don't see any video quality difference between 1080i or 720p on HD cable and 720p or 1080i on HD DVD disks. For that matter, I don't see much difference between 480p from my progressive-scan regular DVD player and my Toshiba HD DVD player. I really can't see much difference between 1080i and 1080p on a 42" screen. Why should I pay $25-$35 for a movie on HD DVD or Blu-ray when I can see it in HD for free (plus whatever portion of my cable bill) or maybe $4-$5 (pay-per-view) on cable?

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